Impeachment Will Not Happen Without the Masses Demanding It

Last week, I wrote about what some of the political consequences of Michael Cohen’s testimony would be. In short, House Democrats will likely hold more hearings, but will be unable to successfully impeach President Donald Trump. The Democrats need 20 Republican Senators to vote in favor of conviction in order to obtain the necessary super majority.  With Trump still wildly popular among Republicans, it is highly unlikely 20 Republican Senators will defect. Nothing in the news this week challenges that hypothesis.

But can the Democrats mobilize enough political forces to make impeachment more probable?

We must first ask ourselves if the Democrats have the political will to impeach Trump.  The answer is a resounding, “no.”  According to a recent interview with the Washington Post, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi opposes impeachment.

I’m not for impeachment. This is news. I’m going to give you some news right now because I haven’t said this to any press person before. But since you asked, and I’ve been thinking about this: Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country. And he’s just not worth it.

 
This should come as no surprise. Back in November, Pelosi rejected that there would be impeachment “unless it’s bipartisan.” In her typically ambiguous manner, she defined the “priority” of the incoming Democrats as getting “results for the American people.”

“Results” appears to mean opposing the impeachment of Trump; deriding Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Green New Deal plan as “the Green New Dream, or whatever they call it”; denouncing Congresswoman Ilhan Omar’s rightful criticism of AIPAC’s influence as anti-semitic; and then in a further attack on Omar from the Right, attempted to pass a condemnation of Omar thinly veiled as a resolution against anti-semitism until popular support for Omar forced Pelosi to also condemn Islamophobia. Those are the current achievements from the self-declared “master legislator.”

Pelosi’s rejection of impeachment is also not shocking for those who remember pre-Trump America. In 2006, the Democrats campaigned similarly on holding then President George W. Bush accountable for his war crimes, lying to Congress about the existence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and creating a global torture regime. After the Democrats won the House, Nancy Pelosi said, “Impeachment is off the table.” Then just as now, she pledged “civility and bipartisanship” with “the Republicans in Congress, and the president.”

Just as they did in 2006, the Democrats once again dangled impeachment before their liberal supporters enticing them to go the polls. Once in power, they stress the need for bipartisanship and compromise with the same party and President they have spent two years denouncing as an authoritarian, fascist, and Russian puppet.

The Democratic leadership has made another blunder that has hindered their ability to build support for impeachment. Pelosi and other Democratic leaders have stressed time and time again to wait for the Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report. In order for impeachment to happen, said the Speaker to a reporter from the Atlantic, “You have to have evidence, evidence of the connection. Everything’s about the connection” of the Trump campaign to the alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election.  In other words, if there’s no evidence of collusion, there’s no impeachment.

This is a failed strategy for three reasons. First, by setting the high standard of collusion for impeachment, the Democrats implicitly excuse all of the other crimes and evidence of corruption Trump and his administration has committed.  The forcible separation and caging of children apparently doesn’t cross a line to Pelosi and other Democratic leaders. Trump’s violation of the emoluments clause since the first day in office — an explicitly impeachable offense per Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the US Constitution — is apparently now not worthy of impeachment.

Second, the Democrats attempt still to court the ever illusive moderate, reasonable Republican.  The theory is that if Mueller reveals incontrovertible evidence of Russian collusion, Republicans will come to their senses and turn on Donald Trump. However, a recent Economist/YouGov poll provides evidence that contradicts this ill-conceived strategy. Per the poll, about 60 percent of Republicans oppose impeaching the President even if Robert Mueller finds evidence of Trump accepting Russian assistance in the 2016 election and obstructing justice in regards to the special counsel’s investigation. With numbers like that and a high approval rating among Republicans, Democrats cannot face the fact that outside of a dozen DC Beltway elites, there are no Republican moderates.

The final reason the Democrats’ impeachment strategy — or lack thereof — will fail is due to the nature of the strategy itself.  By placing all hope in in Mueller’s investigation, the Democrats misunderstand the impeachment process as technocratic.  They consistently fail to grasp the inherently political nature of impeachment.

In their elitist conception of leaving politics to the technocrats, the Democrats see no role for the masses aside from periodically voting.  This is best exemplified recently in Senator Diane Feinstein’s condescending denunciation of children activists. “I’ve been doing this for 30 years. I know what I’m doing,” exclaimed the Senator. The pesky rabble are not meant to bother their superiors who ostensibly represent their interests by taking massive campaign donations from the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors.

If the Democrats cared about the working class and understood politics, they would mobilize them in tangible and effective ways. They could leverage their connections in unions to encourage and support strikes in order to stave off Trump’s most extreme tendencies and egregious policies. They could encourage strategic sit-ins, protests, and other forms of direct action to provide on the ground obstruction to the Republican Party’s regressive social and economic agenda. But they don’t.

Instead, Democratic leaders like Pelosi prefer to attack the progressive faction of their party in order to court disaffected corporate, Republican donors. In a way, it’s good that the Democrats fail to embrace their social democratic base.  After all, the Democratic Party is the graveyard of social movements. The liberation of the working class from capital will not happen by growing the ranks of one of the two capitalist parties. And on a smaller scale impeachment of Donald Trump cannot happen without the working class providing the necessary political pressure on cowardly politicians.

Don’t wait for Mueller or the Democrats to save you.  Strike and protest instead.

What Are the Immediate Political Consequences of Michael Cohen’s Testimony?

On February 27, Michael Cohen testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The full (nearly) eight hours of testimony can be found here. Frankly, only a masochist can sit through the entire hearing, but it is worth watching at least Cohen’s opening statement.  I’m not going to go over what Cohen said during his testimony. Instead, I want to briefly remark on the immediate political consequences of Wednesday’s hearing.

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Michael Cohen: Trump’s former lackey

Many media pundits, like NBC’s Chuck Todd, seem to think that this is the beginning of the impeachment of President Trump.  Chuck Todd had this to say on Meet the Press:

The fact of the matter is this is the first unofficial hearing of the impeachment process. Whether you want to call it that or not, that’s what history’s going to show this, at this point.  ….This is going to be decided in either a ballot box or on the floor of the United States Senate.

Presumably, by being decided in “a ballot box,” Chuck Todd means the Trump situation will be handled during the 2020 presidential election.  Yet, if Trump is defeated by ballot, he can’t be impeached successfully as he would no longer hold office.  Could there be criminal charges brought against Trump for the various crimes and misdemeanors he has committed while in office?  That’s purely a legal possibility.

However, it is a political implausibility. The historical record is very kind to criminal American presidents.  President Gerald Ford infamously granted “a full, free, and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from January 20, 1969 through August 9, 1974.”

In more recent history, the question arose of prosecuting George W. Bush for the various crimes he committed in office.  These crimes included but were not limited to lying to Congress by fabricating evidence to violate international law to justify the invasion and destruction of the sovereign nation of Iraq and the construction of a global torture regime. However, once Barack Obama was elected president, he believed “we need to look forward as opposed to looking backward.”  And so President Obama ordered his Justice Department to grant full immunity to CIA torturers.

Given the historical record, it is unlikely that if Trump is defeated in 2020, the future Democratic president will pursue criminal prosecutions against him or officials in his administration.

So what about “deciding” the Trump situation on the floor of the United States Senate? Because the United States has an archaic political system meant to shelter political elites from popular control and accountability, it is difficult to remove the head of state in an emergency.  Article I, Section 2, Clause 5 of the Constitution grants the House of Representatives the constitutional power to draft articles of impeachment.  The articles of impeachment must pass a simple majority vote.  Currently, there are 235 Democratic Congressmen and women to the Republicans’ 197.  It takes merely 218 to pass a majority vote, so if the Democrats have the political will, they can begin impeachment tomorrow.

Per Article I, Section 3, Clause 6, conviction must take place in the Senate.  However, it is not decided by simple majority but instead by two-thirds super majority. The Republicans currently have a majority with 53 Senators.  That leaves 46 Democrats and 1 Independent (Senator Angus King of Maine — typically caucuses with Democrats).  In order for conviction to be successful, there would need to be 67 Senators voting in favor. In other words, assuming all 46 Democrats and 1 Independent vote in favor of conviction, there would still need to be 20 Republican Senators who also vote against a Republican president.

And not just any Republican president but a very popular one among Republicans. While 52% of Americans disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, that disapproval rating is starkly partisan. The same poll as of Feb 1-10 2019 shows a 89% approval rating of Donald Trump by Republicans (with a mere 5% approval rating among Democrats).  The same Republicans that approve of Donald Trump are the ones who elect those Republican Senators.

Is it possible that enough evidence will come out through subsequent hearings that either Trump’s approval rating among Republicans will tank or some Republican Senators would be willing to defect and vote in favor of conviction? Nothing is out of the realm of possibilities, but again, it is highly implausible that events will play out in this way.

What’s likely to occur is that the Democrats will continue to hold public hearings. These hearings will simultaneously erode Trump’s approval rating with independents and galvanize the Democratic base for the 2020 election. The goal of the Democrats for the foreseeable future is not to establish social justice but to use their power in one chamber of Congress to score a political victory in 2020.

If Americans want to see President Trump convicted and sent to a jail cell, they will need to rely less on politicians using the chaos of the current moment to advance their careers and more on their own organic self-organization.  The American working class must organize itself for mass disobedience and labor strikes. Only the political and economic militancy of the working class has the power to force Donald Trump out of the seat of the imperial presidency.

 

Trump and the Politics of Malice

On October 2, 2018, President Trump mocked Dr. Christine Blasey Ford during a rally in Southaven, Mississippi. Questioning the credibility of her testimony, the President remarked jeeringly before the cheers and laughter of the crowd:

“I had one beer.” “Well, you think it was…” “Nope, it was one beer.” “Oh, good. How did you get home?” “I don’t remember.” “How did you get there?” “I don’t remember.” “Where is the place?” “I don’t remember.” “How many years ago was it?” “I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.” “What neighborhood was it in?” “I don’t know.” “Where’s the house?” “I don’t know.” “Upstairs, downstairs, where was it?” “I don’t know.”

Trump’s latest barrage of insults follow a repeated pattern of belittling, malicious attacks against his opponents. Previously, the President mocked a reporter with disabilities, called Mexicans drug dealers and rapists, and labeled undocumented immigrants as “animals,” not to mention the ceaseless stream of vitriol flowing from the presidential Twitter account.

Many Americans find President Trump’s comments unnecessarily cruel and insensitive. Senator Susan Collins denounced Trump’s mockery of Dr. Ford’s testimony as “just plain wrong.” In likely the strongest possible terms one could expect of a spineless Senator, Jeff Flake called the President’s remarks “kind of appalling.” In spite of Trump’s “kind of appalling” and “just plain wrong” mockery of a survivor of sexual assault, both Collins and Flake voted in favor of confirming the accused rapist to the highest court of the land.

In the days following the Mississippi rally, President Trump continued his attacks. This time the disgraced former Senator Al Franken came under assault:

“He was wacky. Boy, did he fold up like a wet rag, huh? Man. Man. He was gone so fast.

“I don’t want to mention Al Franken’s name, so I won’t mention. He was gone so fast. It was like, ‘Oh, he did something.’ ‘Oh, oh, oh, I resign, I quit, I quit.’”

According to the President, the former Senator’s biggest mistake was not having committed inappropriate sexual behavior. Rather, it was his response to those allegations that deserved condemnation. This warped worldview is further elaborated on in Bob Woodward’s new book Fear. There is a passage where Trump advises a friend “who had acknowledged some bad behavior toward women.” The President tells him, “If you admit to anything and any culpability, then you’re dead. That was a big mistake you made. You didn’t come out guns blazing and just challenge them. You showed weakness. You’ve got to be strong. You’ve got to be aggressive. You’ve got to push back hard” (175; emphasis mine).

Weakness and strength define significantly the political practices of Trump’s neofascist ideology. Political acts must be a public showmanship of strength and power. Even relatively minor events like routine public announcements must be transformed into spectacles displaying the power of the executive.

For example, after the fascist attack in Charlottesville, in any other time one would expect the President of the United States to offer banal condemnation of political violence and the typical calls to unify the nation. Instead, the President infamously condemned violence “on both sides.” After some outrage, President Trump “clarified” his statements in “a five-minute speech that could have been given by President Reagan or Obama” (Woodward, Fear, 243).

However, the megalomaniac and narcissist in chief is not satisfied being a typical president. As Woodward’s book shows, Trump considered this five-minute clarification to be the biggest mistake he has made. He told the White House Staff Secretary at the time, Rob Porter, “You never make those concessions. You never apologize. I didn’t do anything wrong in the first place. Why look weak?” (244). The “lesson” Trump learned from the Charlottesville scandal was applied to the nomination of the accused rapist Brett Kavanaugh: never concede; never apologize; never look weak.

If we are to understand the wider function of Trump’s politics of malice, we must move beyond examining its place in Trump’s psychology. We need to understand the political purpose and effects of these public acts of cruelty in relation to his supporters. The fascist theorist Julius Evola, admired by Trump’s former strategist Stephen Bannon, believed “the only influence over the masses today – and now more than ever – is on the plane of impassioned and subintellectual forces, which by their very nature lack any stability. These are the forces that demagogues, popular leaders, manipulators of myth, and fabricators of ‘public opinion’ count on” (Evola, Ride the Tiger, 173).

When Trump mocks and insults people whether at a rally or on Twitter, he channels those “impassioned and subintellectual forces” in his followers. This serves essentially two purposes. First, by violating political etiquette and proprieties commonplace in elite Washington politics, Trump fights asymmetrically. Liberals like to flatter themselves by repeating the mantra of “when he goes low, we go high,” as if rhetorically occupying the moral high ground is a substitute for effective political action. The consequence of this is that since Trump does not speak and act like an elite, he appears as a strong outsider striking against the “globalist” elites who seek to subvert him.

Flagrant exercises of power often accompany these public acts of cruelty. In spite of great public outcry, the Republican Party forced through Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court. Unlike Democratic politicians, Republicans understand that politics is about the seizure and exercise of power. In addition to providing an appearance of being an outsider, mockery of an opponent like Dr. Ford serves an important psychological function. It invites his supporters to feel as if they share in the glory of their master’s victory. In the absence of definitive, material improvements in the lives of his non-rich base, the primary method of appearing to fight the elites is rhetorical attacks with personal invectives.

However, as Evola said, these “impassioned and subintellectual forces” are “by their very nature lack[ing] any stability.” Per FiveThirtyEight.com, on September 27 – the day of Dr. Ford and Kavanaugh’s hearing – the Democrats had a 80.3% chance to take the House and 31.9% chance for the Senate. By October 8, this margin was narrowed to 73.8% in the House and 20.9% in the Senate. Within the next three days, this margin grew to 78.2% chance for the Democrats to take the House and 20.9% chance for the Senate.

These polls suggest that Trump’s rallies and mockery of his opponents briefly energized and excited his base. But having achieved a victory that was assured from the beginning, the instability of the “impassioned and subintellectual forces” causes the excitement to dwindle over time. This instability requires Trump to continually and publicly denigrate his opponents in order to build up support for his presidency and agenda.

We should not mistakenly believe that the President is some tactical, political genius playing 5D chess with the deep state and liberals. On the contrary, all the evidence demonstrates that Trump is truly a narcissist and political ignoramus who captures intuitively the hearts and minds of his supporters. Without the existence of an effective, powerful resistance, the biggest obstacle to Trump accomplishing his agenda is his own incompetence. Americans must not rely on the President’s incompetence as the greatest asset in thwarting a neofascist agenda.

They must also not delude themselves into believing that Trump is an aberration whose removal from office will cleanse the body politic. Building an effective resistance requires moving beyond occupying a rhetorical high ground. As Henry Giroux says, we must examine “what kind of a society produces a Donald Trump” (America at War with Itself, 32). Economic stagnation, the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a small number of capitalists, and the entrenched, systemic legacies of white supremacy and patriarchy create the fertile ground on which grows neofascism and Trump-like figures. Resistance necessitates addressing the problem at its root.

Why Socialism?

The world marches precipitously towards two crises it appears it cannot avoid. The increasing concentration of wealth into the pockets of a small number of capitalists leaves a destitute and precarious existence for the working class. Disproportionate accumulation of wealth translates directly into disproportionate political power. The result is the current crisis in liberal democracy in the advanced capitalist states whose promises of a good life and equal political representation are increasingly vacuous and hollow. Following from the crisis of liberal democracies is the growing antagonisms between nuclear powers: the United States, China, and Russia. So long as the world remains ruled by the ceaseless drive to accumulate capital, none of those crises can be sufficiently resolved in the interests of the working class.


The Empty Promise of Capitalist Democracy

In any class society where ownership of the means of production are separated from those who work it, certain inevitable imbalances of power arise. Those who own the economy dominate its political systems. So in feudal society, the lords and church owned the land while the serfs worked it. It was the lords and church who held all political power in feudalism. Today, there may be no more feudal lords in the advanced capitalist states, but such structural inequities remain.

Capitalists own the means of production; workers do not and thus must sell their labor-power to a capitalist in order to make a living. There is an inherent antagonistic social relation between the capitalist and worker the origins of which can be located in a basic material fact. Every dollar paid to the worker is a dollar less of profit to the capitalist. Capitalists are incentivized to maximize their profits by paying their workers as little as possible and working them as hard as they can. To a capitalist, workers are a necessary but unfortunate cost of business who must routinely be subjugated to various methods of control and indoctrination.

In order to manage the inevitable antagonisms that result from subjecting the majority of the population to an inferior position in the class hierarchy, States are formed. States protect and serve the interests of the ruling class in any given society.

What is interesting is how controversial this nearly self-evident statement is for many academics, media pundits and journalists. The notion that the United States, far from being a bastion of democracy and freedom, is on the contrary a rather hollow democracy where the rich posses far more influence than the working class is routinely dismissed as mere anti-American propaganda. Without a hint of intended irony, often the revered wisdom and prescience of the Founding Fathers are trotted out as an example of the longevity and quality of American political institutions. How could a political system that has lasted so long and was gifted to us by such exalted figures not be the greatest, freest on Earth?

If one moves beyond mere worship of the secular cult of the Founding Fathers, reality tells a different story. The ruling class is typically far more conscious of its position of power than the classes over which it rules. This is just as true in 1787 as it is today.

In the Constitutional Convention, James Madison argued that the new government “ought to be so constituted as to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority” who were poor. The Senate was to be the political body which ensured the “permanency and stability” of the ruling class by making it difficult for the popular will to influence political decision-making. Echoing Aristotle, Madison understood that “if elections were open to all classes of people, the property of the landed proprietors would be insecure” as “an agrarian law would soon take place” which redistributed wealth and land to poor farmers. Therefore, “our government ought to secure the permanent interests of the country,” meaning the interests of the class of wealthy businessmen, landowners, and slaveowners.

Little has changed in the 230 years since the Constitutional Convention. The United States is a plutonomy “where economic growth is powered by and largely consumed by the wealthy few.” As for “the rest, the “non-rich”, the multitudinous many”, they account for “surprisingly small bites of the national pie.” Those are not the words of Karl Marx or other socialists, but rather those of the capitalist class itself. A 2005 Citigroup industry memo, which was supposed to only circulate among their wealthy clients, was leaked to the public. This document offers a rare look at how the capitalist class perceives itself, the role of government, and what it contemptuously calls the “multitudinous many.”

The Citigroup Plutonomy Memo rejoices that “capitalist-friendly governments and tax regimes” among other factors “are likely to strengthen, entrenching and buttressing plutonomy.” The memo celebrates that “The behavior of the exceptionally rich drives the national numbers — the “appalling low” overall savings rate, the “over-extended consumer”, and the “unsustainable” current accounts that accompany this phenomenon.” However, the authors of the report “want to spend little time worrying about these (non)issues” as they do not “think they warrant any risk on premium equities.” Issues like appalling low household savings rates, “over-extended consumers” and “unsustainable” current accounts are merely non-issues.  As they only negatively effect the “multitudinous many” and not the pockets of the rich, they are of no concern for the capitalist ruling class.

That the government exists to serve the interests of the wealthy capitalists is not just a notion shared by those capitalists themselves and their socialists critics. There is significant empirical evidence that supports this claim. In an exhaustive study, Princeton professors Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page found “that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.”

Of the 1,779 policy cases analyzed, the researchers discovered that a proposed policy change “with low support among economically-elite Americans… is adopted only about 18 percent of the time.” Even when 80 percent of the public was in favor of a policy change, that policy was implemented “only about 43 percent of the time.” The overwhelming evidence causes Gilens and Page to conclude “the responsiveness of the U.S. political system when the general public wants government action is severely limited.”

Gilens and Page’s research covers the period between 1981 and 2002 – ending 8 years before Citizens United. The landmark Supreme Court decision may have opened the “floodgates for corporate cash” but the disproportionate influence of capitalists was always there. This is because, contrary to liberal conceptions of the State, the State is not some neutral entity which has unfortunately been hijacked by rogue crony capitalists. Rather, in the words of Marx, “the executive of the modern State is but a committee for managing the common affairs” of the entire capitalist class.

Marching Towards the Mushroom Cloud

Capitalists use the nation states which they control to advance their imperial interests on a global scale. Before World War II, the principal imperialist power was the United Kingdom. At its height, the British Empire “comprised nearly one-quarter of the world’s land surface and more than one-quarter of its total population.” In spite of its overwhelming power, the cost of the empire combined with the damage caused by two world wars and decolonization movements led to the end of the British Empire.

But the collapse of the British Empire did not signal the end of imperialism. On the contrary, the world entered into a much darker and deadlier stage of imperialism. All the traditional major imperialist states – United Kingdom, France, Germany and Japan – were devastated during the war. With its civilian, economic, and military infrastructure largely unscathed, by 1945 the United States became the principal imperialist power par excellence. Its sole competitor was the Soviet Union, which had a far smaller economy and military apparatus.

What separated this period of imperialism from those prior are two related developments. First, the scale of imperialist violence reached literally apocalyptic proportions by the end of World War II. The development of nuclear weapons forever changed human history. Wars have always led to unspeakable violence, civilian deaths, horrifying violations of human rights and dignity, and sometimes the full and systematic destruction of entire peoples. However, now in the era of imperialism with nuclear powers, war carries the risk of terminating human history in a radioactive cloud and nuclear winter.

The second development concerns with the way imperialist powers subjugate other countries. In the era of British imperialism, the establishment of colonies and direct acquisition and control of nations was the preferred method of subjugating oppressed peoples in the interests of profit. While the United States is no stranger to invasion and slaughter, its primary method of advancing its imperialist interests differs.

The United States prefers to “promote democracy and freedom,” which is a euphemism for covert subversion, interference in democratic elections, assassination, economic strangulation, and invasion to establish a capitalist-friendly government ruled by comprador elites. While the Cold War was “cold” between the United States and Soviet Union, the war was quite “hot” between the United States and much of the Global South. In the name of “democracy promotion” and “containing the threat of communism,” the United States ruthlessly destroyed Korea, invaded South Vietnam, criminally bombarded civilians throughout Indochina, installed a dictator in Indonesia and supported the genocide of East Timor, overthrew governments throughout Central and South America the most infamous of which was installing the Chilean fascist dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet, and more.

With the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States became the world’s sole superpower. Its imperial planners were conscious of this unprecedented historically advantageous circumstance. In a September 2000 report by the neoconservative think-tank Project for a New American Century, the authors accurately observe, “At no time in history has the international security order been as conducive to American interests and ideals.” The primary challenge of the 21st Century is thus to “preserve and enhance this ”American peace.””

In order to maintain and enhance “American peace”, the authors recommend “fight[ing] and decisively win[ning] multiple, simultaneous major theater wars”, increasing military spending, “maintain[ing] nuclear strategic superiority” in addition to repositioning US forces to Southeast Europe and Southeast Asia. Endless war is American peace. Orwell would not be shocked at such imperialist doublethink.

American imperialist planners and strategists are perceptive enough to understand the unmatched imperial supremacy of the United States is only temporary. The United States’ economic power has declined relative to other countries’ economies every decade since its height at the end of World War II. As Europe rebuilt itself, China also rapidly industrialized. Even Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs Lloyd Blankfein recognizes the inevitability of China economically surpassing the United States.

The United States responded to its relative decline with hysteria. As NATO expands to Russian borders in violation of verbal agreements between then Secretary of State James Baker and Mikhail Gorbachev, the Russian boogeyman is resurrected. Americans are supposed to ignore the fact that the United States spends roughly 10 times more on its military than Russia does. Instead, we are told once again behind every shadow lurks a Russian conspiracy.

While American politicians greatly exaggerate the Russian threat, they truly fear a growing China. To combat the rise of China, under President Obama the United States pursued a policy of economic containment and military redeployment. In a Foreign Policy article titled “America’s Pacific Century,” then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton articulated President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” strategy. “Harnessing Asia’s growth and dynamism is central to American economic and strategic interests”, writes Clinton. She explains, “Open markets in Asia provide the United States with unprecedented opportunities for investment, trade, and access to cutting-edge technology. Our economic recovery at home will depend on exports and the ability of American firms to tap into the vast and growing consumer base of Asia.”

The United States did not wish to lose influence in the region to China’s rapid economic growth. President Obama found a willing partner in South Korea whose leaders “feared that East Asia’s expanding network of export production would continue to draw investment out of Korea, further weakening the country’s manufacturing base” (Martin Hart-Landsberg, Capitalist Globalization, 96). As Hart-Landsberg accurately writes, “an agreement with Korea would help counter China’s growing economic influence in Korea” (97).  And thus the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement was signed.

The second major part of containing and attempting to control China’s economic growth was the failed Trans-Pacific Partnership. The TPP was an ambitious plan to solidify Western corporate control and power among 12 member countries comprising 40% of the world’s GDP (Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Chile, United States, Australia, Peru, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Canada and Japan). This would have pressured China to adopt liberal economic reforms to join the TPP so its economic growth could be “harnessed” by the United States. This is in conformance with the United States’ long-term goal of incorporating “China and other emerging countries into a trade order that the United States dominates, according to the rules that it sets.

Aware of the TPP’s objective, Chinese leaders did not submit willingly to its assigned subordinate position in the American global trade order. As Barry Naughton, Guy de Jonquières, and Graham Webster write in Foreign Policy, the TPP “also pressures China to come up with alternatives that will be attractive to its neighbors while also serving its own interests.” In response to US efforts to corner it, China seeks to expand the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and implement its One Belt, One Road economic expansion policy.

President Trump’s withdrawal from the TPP greatly angered imperial planners. Writing for the Brookings Institution, Joshua P. Meltzer condemned Trump’s opposition to TPP: “The US administration has failed to articulate a trade and investment agenda for Asia that can compare to the TPP or China’s ambition for BRI [Belt and Road Initiative].” The result “has significant economic and strategic consequences for the United States, none of which are good.”

Trump’s opposition to the TPP should be viewed neither as the enactment of an enlightened foreign policy nor as a significant change in US-China relations. Trump did not oppose the TPP because of its Investor-State Dispute Settlements, which “essentially allows corporations to sue governments in order to strike down laws that they feel threaten their profits or potential future profits.” He opposed the TPP in vague terms offering little more than he “didn’t like the deal” and preferred bilateral trade deals. Furthermore, Trump’s $200 billion tariffs on China threatens to escalate the trade war and further deteriorate relations with the regional power.
Since Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to China, the United States has followed a grand strategy of dividing Russia and China. Nixon’s Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, articulated a policy of “triangular diplomacy” in which the United States drove a wedge between China and the Soviet Union supporting the former against the latter. However, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, American imperial hubris contributed to undermining its own successful strategy. Military interventions in Iraq and especially Libya angered Russia. American interference in the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts further drove Russia away from any possible rapprochement with the United States. Lastly, the sanctions against Russia and tariffs against China “have played a role in driving Russia and China closer together,” as James Ellingworth writes in the Chicago Tribune.

The Necessity of Socialism

The consequences are dire not just for Americans, but for the entire world. The United States is determined to remain on the imperial throne dictating the rules of trade for the benefit of a small number of American capitalists. However, with its relative economic power declining, the United States loses its ability to dictate economic agreements with large competitor states like China. As its belligerent military and economic actions push two nuclear powers closer together, a dangerous geopolitical crisis brews.

The American working class can only avoid these dangerous developments by taking matters into its own hands. Workers need to build broad and powerful anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist organizations capable of confronting capital at the origin of its power: in our workplaces. The power that capitalists have over workers has led us to our present, dangerous circumstances. It is time for workers to emancipate themselves from the dictatorship of capital. In its place, only the fullest and freest democracy encompassing both political and economic life must be established.

Socialism is the answer to the domination and plunder of our country and others by the capitalist ruling class.  Instead of a plutocratic political system whereby a handful of wealthy American oligarchs rule under the facade of representative democracy, we need a socialist system.  With both economic and political power in the hands of the working class, workers can collectively and democratically decide to use society’s enormous wealth to provide a good existence for all its members.  Until then, the dictatorship of capital will prefer to spend $1.2 trillion renovating the means by which human history could be terminated while cynically asking how we can provide free healthcare for all.